Naoki Masuda
(RIKEN)

06/01/26, 17:00 at Room 3631 (6th floor of building 3 of the Faculty of Sciences)

Realistic dynamics of infectious diseases are described by multi-state models with appropriate transition rules representing, for example, birth, death, infection, recovery, disease progression, and quarantine. We analyze various multi-state epidemic models on complex networks, or in ensembles of individuals with heterogeneous contact rates. In most models, as in the SIS model, heterogeneous degree distributions principally decrease the critical infection rates. In models with competing pathogens and mutation, however, further conditions must be satisfied for the heterogeneity effect to appear. Furthermore, the rock-scissors-paper game does not show this dependence. Our systematic approach enables us to predict effects of complex networks on general epidemic models.

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