Stochastic Lattice Models for Forest Dynamics

Robert Schlicht
(Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Kyushu University)

06/02/14, 13:30 at Room 1203 (2nd floor of building 1 of the Faculty of Sciences)


The vegetation height in forest ecosystems is spatially heterogeneous. Gaps in the forest canopy are formed when trees fall, and the canopy can recover by growth of small trees or extension of branches of adjacent trees. In this talk I present the results of a study of the spatial patterns which is based on stochastic lattice models.
In the first part of the talk I will investigate how well a simple two-state model can describe the patterns of gaps. In the case of the 25.25 ha deciduous forest plot in the Ogawa Forest Reserve, we will see that this model, which corresponds to the Ising model of statistical mechanics, is insufficient to understand the patterns at the local scale.
In the second part of the talk I will focus on multiple scales. I compare the two-state model to a three-state model and a “propagating-wave model” with a continuous range of states, by considering the variance of the gap cover as a function of the scale, and measuring the deviation of this function from a power law. The two-state and three-state models are similar in this respect, and both are close to forest data. The propagating-wave model shows a clear deviation from the power law.
In the third part of the talk I will introduce a method to detect the direction of propagating waves of disturbance and regeneration. This allows us to distinguish models with a global direction (Shimagare model), models with a local direction (propagating-wave, three-state model), and models without direction (two-state model).


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