Ben Adams
(Kyushu University)

07/07/17, 13:30 (理学部3号館6階数理生物学セミナー室)

In many regions the number of dengue infections oscillates seasonally. This is believed to be related to oscillations in the mosquito population size or extrinsic incubation period. In cold or dry seasons there may be no reported infections. It is not known how the virus survives this period. One longstanding hypothesis is that vertical transmission (i.e. from mother to daughter) in the mosquito population is a significant factor. In this talk I will discuss empirical data for vertical transmission and then develop a simple mathematical model to assess its potential impact on virus persistence. I will show that vertical transmission at the rates found in laboratory experiments is unlikely to be a significant factor when the mosquito population shows only demographic oscillation or seasonal oscillation without diapause. I will then introduce a model that includes diapause and discuss the gaps in empirical data that mean only a very general, qualitative interpretation is possible. Finally, I will suggest key empirical experiments that I believe, based on my experience trying to develop a suitable model, could significantly improve our understanding of the role of vertical transmission in dengue virus persistence.

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