Ben Adams
(Department of Mathematics, University of Bath)

08/12/22, 13:30 at Room 3631 (6th floor of building 3 of the Faculty of Sciences)

In temperate regions influenza is well known as a winter infection, associated with short days and cold weather. Until recently it was believed that tropical regions were not significantly affected. However, in the last few years new epidemiological data have shown significant incidence in tropical countries, spread fairly evenly throughout the year. Genetic analysis has also indicated that these tropical regions may be a major source of the antigenic diversity found in influenza viruses sampled from temperate regions. With reference to these empirical results, I will present and discuss a stochastic, continuous time, discrete population model with the aim of elucidating some of the important processes shaping the antigenic evolution of influenza.

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