Goverment control effect of the spread of influenza among Korea cities


Gi phil Cho
(Kyungpook National University, Korea)

09/10/15, 15:00 - 16:00 at Room 3631 (6th floor of building 3 of the Faculty of Sciences)


Due to the recent emergence of H5N1 virus, the modelling of pandemic influenza has become a relevant issue. Here we present an SEAITR model formulated to simulate a possible outbreak in Korea. We model the spread of the disease in each city by a system of deterministic differential equations. The susceptible, exposed, infected, recovery people are assumed to mix randomly within a city. We assume that the nonrandom mixing of the population among the cities between the major cities is captured in the model by the all species traffic travel. We also assume that people continue to travel when they are infectious, but treating people don't travel. This assumption restricts the current model to specific diseases, such as influenza, where people are asymptomatic or only mildly ill while infected. When one infected people outbreak, after some day, government control disease. We have simulated the implementation of different control measures. We have considered strategies composed of one or more of the two following interventions: (i) mobility limitation, (ii) treat and isolation of symptomatic people.


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