Complex behaviour in epidemiological models: a resonance approach
MK's abstract--
Recent interest in epidemical model is dynamical behaviours of SIR
with seasonal forcing. The general properties of the model with
seasonal forcing are:
i) when the forcing is small, the dynamics of infected hosts tend to
be a year cycle which is the same period with seasonal forcing.
ii) when we have stronger forcing, the dynamics becomes period of two
years, four years, eight years and the dynamics becomes chaotic
eventually, i.e. there is a period doubling bifurcation.
iii) new periods also appear in order of the smaller integers by
saddle node bifurcation (sometimes called "period adding").
iv) especially when the seasonal forcing is large, the periods which
appear by the saddle node bifurcation break the chaotic dynamics and
there is a "window between intervals of chaos".
v) to understand the relationships between the different stable
attractors we use the method of Poincare maps to reveal otherwise
hidden unstable attractors.
JG's abstract---
Abstract.
Analysing dynamical models is complicated by the multiplicity of
states that can be excited in the interaction between model
nonlinearity and external forcing. This multiplicity, typically
created by a hierarchy of subcritical subharmonics, can lead to high
amplification of the forcing signal and complex switching under chaos
and stochastic externalities. Our objective is to understand the
structure of these possible modes of system oscillation, in
particular the conditions under which they appear and disappear. The
analysis is carried out by transforming the problem into a problem of
locating the resonances of the system under variable period forcing.
The hierarchy of resonances identified has a well defined generic
structure based on the natural period of oscillation of the model,
whether stable or unstable when isolated.
The methodology will be applied to a study of (i) childhood diseases
and will provide an explanation for why different diseases behave in
different ways (ii) pathogen virulence with RHD in rabbits as an
example (iii) reinforcement and interference in predator-prey models
(iv) the effect of age structure in delay-differential equations with
"Plodia" as an example (v) the interaction of two pathogen strains
(Kamo and Sasaki, 2002).