Diffusive epidemiological models with an Allee effect
University of Osnabrück, Germany Frank M. Hilker
We are interested in the spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious
diseases in animal populations. Hence, besides epidemiological
aspects the vital dynamics as well as the spatial spread become
important. However, there is still not so much known about the
interplay of the latter ones. By way of example, the circulation of
the Feline Immunodeficieny Virus (FIV) within domestic cats (Felis
catus, L.) is considered. FIV induces AIDS in cats.
We construct a two-compartmental reaction-diffusion model consisting
of susceptibles and infected. We shall mainly consider the case, in
which the vital dynamics are assumed to exhibit an Allee effect, i.e.
there is a minimum viable population density below which the
population goes extinct. Two different cases of transmission between
susceptibles and infected are considered.
(i) In the case of the standard incidence, global stability results
of the local dynamics are presented including the non-existence of
periodic solutions. Adding diffusion, the emergence of travelling
frontal waves is numerically demonstrated. Critical spatial size
phenomena can be observed and the situatiuon, in which an introduced
pathogen induces the host population to go extinct, if the host
itself invades open space.
(ii) In the case of mass action transmission, the situation becomes
much more complex. The local dynamics may show Hopf, saddle-node and
homoclinic bifurcations, thus giving rise to Bogdanov-Takens and cusp
points as well as to multiple equilibria including tri-stability.
Adding diffusion, examples of numerically simulated target patterns
and spiral waves are given.
Finally, these results are contrasted with vital dynamics of the
logistic kind, demonstrating that the Allee effect adds interesting
and qualitatively new dynamics to epidemiology.